941 calculation

最近聽過林森池大師的電台節目，講述有關中移動的合理價，小弟嘗試用相關方法自己計一次：

941 intrinsic value:

Case 1:（保守）
EPS growth: 20%
RMB growth: 5%
Dividend growth: 30%
PE: 28x
discound rate: 5%

06EPS = 3.32
07EPS = 3.32 * 1.2 = 3.98
08EPS = 3.98 * 1.2 = 4.78
09EPS = 4.78 * 1.2 = 5.74
09EPS in HKD = 5.74 * 1.05^3 = 6.64

06 dividend = 1.57
07 dividend = 1.57 * 1.3 = 2.04
08 dividend = 2.04 * 1.3 = 2.65
09 dividend = 2.65 * 1.3 = 3.45

stock price at 09= 6.64 * 28 = 185.92
plus accumulated dividend = 185.92 + 3.45 = 189.37

present value = 189.37 / 1.05^2 = 171.76
========

Case 2:（樂觀）
EPS growth: 28%
RMB growth: 7%
Dividend growth: 40%
PE: 28x
discound rate: 5%

06EPS = 3.32
07EPS = 3.32 * 1.28 = 4.25
08EPS = 4.25 * 1.28 = 5.44
09EPS = 5.44 * 1.28 = 6.96
09EPS in HKD = 6.96 * 1.07^2 = 7.97

06 dividend = 1.57
07 dividend = 1.57 * 1.4 = 2.20
08 dividend = 2.20 * 1.4 = 3.08
09 dividend = 3.08 * 1.4 = 4.31

stock price at 09= 7.97 * 28 = 223.16
plus accumulated dividend = 223.16 + 4.31 = 227.47

present value = 227.47 / 1.05^2 = 206.32
========

Case 3:（溢價）
EPS growth: 28%
RMB growth: 7%
Dividend growth: 40%
PE: 40x
discound rate: 5%

stock price at 09= 7.97 * 40 = 318.80
plus accumulated dividend = 318.80 + 4.31 = 323.11

present value = 323.11 / 1.05^2 = 293.07

所以941未來兩年應該會在171.76, 206.32, 293.07之間。